The Gaza Ceasefire: A US-Israel Defeat Or Another Trick?

Written by Robert Inlakesh

After 466 days of war between Israel and Gaza, a ceasefire has finally been declared and is set to go into effect in the coming days. The deal, in essence, is the same exact proposal that was set forth some 8 months ago. In order to understand what may happen next, it is essential to analyze the circumstances that led to this outcome.

On Wednesday, Hamas officially accepted a ceasefire/prisoner-exchange agreement with Israel. The day prior, the Israelis had pledged to announce and then finalize the deal within as little as 24 hours given a Hamas commitment to the deal. Suddenly, on Thursday morning, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu postponed a planned cabinet meeting to formally ratify the ceasefire, claiming that Hamas had made additional demands, without making it clear what the Palestinian group was asking for. Immediately Hamas responded by stating that it hadn't made such demands and was fully committed to the deal they just signed.

The Israeli PM's efforts to delay the implementation of the deal came after an avalanche of Israeli media coverage that pushed the narrative of an Israeli defeat, framing the ceasefire as a surrender deal. Shortly afterwards, Israeli Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, decided to threaten the resignation of his Otzma Yehudit Party from Netanyahu's coalition, threatening a collapse of the government. This all occurred as Israeli forces were already beginning a slow withdrawal from two key areas inside the Gaza Strip. Although the deal is not dead, considerable pushback from a segment of the Israeli public and members of the ruling coalition threaten its implementation, despite there already being steps taken to go ahead with it. Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes across Gaza have been ramped up, inflicting hundreds of casualties, some against groups who were celebrating the announcement of the ceasefire.

By the admission of US President Joe Biden himself, the ceasefire agreement that was just approved by Hamas is nearly identical to the agreement that was put on the table back in May of 2024. In fact, on June 10, shortly after Biden set forth his three phase ceasefire proposal last year, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) ratified it with a unanimous vote. On the premise of this UNSC approved ceasefire initiative, a developed version of the plan was heavily promoted by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who lauded the deal he had helped put together alongside his Israeli allies.

This led to the breakthrough of May 6, when Hamas officially announced they had accepted the deal presented to them. Instead of implementing the deal they claimed to seek, Israel's answer was to ignore the calls of the US President to halt their planned assault on the southern-most city of Gaza, and instead choosing to launch an invasion that would conquer the Rafah Crossing between Egypt and Gaza that very same day. The Rafah invasion forced over 1 million Palestinian refugees to flee southern Gaza, blocking all aid from entering the besieged territory for weeks and drawing wide condemnation from human rights groups.

Israel argued that it could not "win" its war without invading Rafah. This Israeli "victory," a vision endorsed by Joe Biden for months, was supposed to encompass the completion of two primary tasks: The first being the the complete "destruction" of Hamas, the second being the return of Israel's captives in Gaza by force. On both accounts, if the ceasefire holds, Israel will have failed.

However, Antony Blinken attempted to claim that, through weakening Hezbollah, collapsing the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad, and attacking Iran, Israel and the United States had emerged victorious during the course of the war. Blinken's address was given at an event organized by the Washington-based think-tank, the Atlantic Council, where he also claimed that Hamas had been degraded by the Israeli military. Yet he then went on to contradict himself, stating that “Hamas cannot be defeated with military actions alone,” continuing on to say "according to our estimates, Hamas has recruited as many new elements as it has lost”. These admissions were followed by the warning that the ability of Hamas to reconstitute its fighting force will lead to perpetual conflict.

Judging by all the metrics set forth to judge what constitutes an Israeli-US victory, by officials in Tel Aviv and Washington themselves, Hamas has prevailed over Israel. Not only is the Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas, still a capable fighting force, but Hamas is perhaps more popular now that any point in its history. This is assuming that the Gaza ceasefire holds.

Yet it is fair to assume that both Israel and the United States government fully understand the nature of the defeat they are agreeing to, which is why it would be naive to not look further.

Why A Ceasefire Now?

The reality of the region, in addition to the transition from a Biden Presidency to the rule of the incoming Trump administration, have much to do with the timing of the deal.

Although the Biden administration could have acted to enforce a ceasefire back in May, the regional power dynamics 8 months ago were far from favorable, and implementing a deal with Hamas would have severely undermined Israeli and US standing in the region. At that time, Hezbollah was launching daily attacks on military targets and had displaced around 100,000 Israelis from their settlements in the north. Iran appeared at this time to be the undisputed top dog in West Asia, dominating the US and Israel in the realm of power projection.

Beginning with its pager explosion attacks, that were indeed acts of "terrorism" according to former CIA director Leon Panetta, and culminating in the assassination of Hezbollah's senior leadership, Israel's brutal assault on Lebanon dramatically turned the tables. This forced Iran to finally respond to Israel's assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Hanniyeh in Tehran and the murder of senior Iranian military officials with its October 1 (2024) 'Operation True Promise 2'. The Iranians were heavily undermined and the successful missile attack operation managed to temporarily revive confidence in their regional vision.

Hezbollah then fought a war against Israel, essentially blindfolded and standing on one foot, but still managed to prevent any significant Israeli advances on the ground into southern Lebanon. In the end, the Lebanese resistance group chose to play the situation safe, not expending the bulk of their advanced weapons, and knowing that the inevitable result of the war would be a stale-mate it chose to take a 60-day ceasefire agreement on November 27.

On that same day, a myriad of armed groups headed by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham launched an offensive to seize the Syrian city of Aleppo. It took the Syrian opposition only 11-days to topple the government of Bashar al-Assad in Damascus, which was immediately followed by an Israeli invasion of the country. Israel has managed to seize all of the Syrian Golan Heights, occupy its six most vital water sources in the south of the country, while ethnically cleansing villages, placing its tanks only 20 kilometers from Damascus, they also eliminated most of the Syrian army's military equipment in the largest ever air campaign in the Israeli air force's history.

For over a month, Israel has continued to conquer land in Syria, while the new Syrian transitional government led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham has not only refused to oppose them, but has repeatedly signaled it seeks normalization with Tel Aviv. The only stated enemy of the new Syrian government is Iran, which has been forced out of Syria and subsequently lost its supply route to Hezbollah.

Although Hezbollah remains a formidable fighting force, with the capability of producing weapons domestically, it has lost its perception of power and ability to import advanced munitions. Therefore, the Israelis are now viewed as the top dog of the region once again, completely undermining the Iranians.

Iran, in reality, continues to possess the military capabilities to batter Israel, while Hezbollah could undoubtably inflict heavy blows against them, yet the perception has now changed. Due to the risks taken by Tel Aviv, Iran now appears to have been severely beaten and forced into submission -- which is certainly the new perception that has arisen -- especially after the overthrow of the Syrian government. With this new perception of power and string of tactical victories, Israel was in a much stronger position to negotiate with Hamas.

Although a ceasefire with Gaza at this time would prove to be an evident defeat to the Israelis, the US government would still emerge powerful and enabled to continue its pursuit of a Saudi-Israeli normalization agreement. It was obvious from the beginning that Hamas and the other Palestinian armed factions in Gaza were not going to be defeated. In fact, they continue to possess the rocket capabilities to fire on Tel Aviv and Western Jerusalem, while also inflicting casualties on Israeli soldiers every day in Gaza.

Another aspect to consider in the reaching of a ceasefire deal is Donald Trump's support inside Israel. Despite being a decisive figure in the United States, he is the most popular public figure amongst Israelis and enjoys enormous support from the right-wing extremists. In the past, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu had feared signing a ceasefire due to the threat posed by his extremist ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. The Trump administration, however, has the power to override the Religious Zionism alliance's threats to collapse Netanyahu's coalition government. The incoming American President also received a $100 million campaign contribution from no other than Israel's richest billionaire, Miriam Adelson, with the reported quid pro quo of President Trump permitting Tel Aviv's planned Illegal West Bank annexation.

Furthermore, Israel was never actually fighting a war with a clear set of military plans. It had no idea where its captives were being held, no idea how to dismantle Hamas or the other Palestinian groups, and its soldiers never fought any real battles.

If you analyze the fighting in Gaza, the Israeli soldiers are either stationed in fortified areas or travel in heavily armored vehicles, under the cover of tanks and air power. They didn't fight like a conventional army would to conduct a counter-insurgency operation in an urban warfare setting. This reason behind the choice to hide and not fight the Palestinian groups directly (ordered by the Israeli military leadership) is self-evident, especially when paired with the genocidal statements routinely issued from every level of rulership, right down to the rank and file in the Israeli army: The Israelis wanted to reduce soldier casualties at all costs, while pursuing the goal of genocide and not the military defeat of Hamas.

While the Palestinian factions published hundreds and hundreds of videos, documenting their fighters carrying out combat missions in complex terrains, the Israeli military has little footage that demonstrates their soldiers ever engaged in face-to-face combat. The Palestinian fighters filmed their attacks, which primarily feature them emerging from buildings and tunnels, to either fire upon soldiers or plant explosives next to tanks, in ambush style assaults.

The Israeli army was not really fighting a war on the ground, it was instead entering areas in order to destroy civilian infrastructure, occasionally searching for tunnels to seal off with explosives or to locate bodies of their captives -- most of whom were killed by their own airstrikes. The real war was against civilians and infrastructure, it was a mass slaughter aimed at finally ending the "Gaza question". They had no interest in sending their soldiers into hardcore face-to-face battles, they simply sought to utterly destroy Gaza and torture its people, and to do both so horrifically that it would render the Palestinians incapable of continuing and the territory incapable of functioning.

At best, the Israeli leadership were likely hoping that their genocide would simply lead to the eventual weakening of Hamas after the murder of enough civilians and destruction of most of the territory's infrastructure. However, through this wholesale slaughter and destruction, the only real goal they potentially achieved was preventing any armed resistance from emerging from the territory for the foreseeable future following the war -- as there is no way that Israel can manage fighting such a war every decade.

What Happens Next?

The Israelis now have to deal with three potential fronts in the ongoing regional war. They are currently invading Syria, remain inside Lebanese territory, and seek annexation of the West Bank -- all of which are illegal under international law. Syria poses no challenges at the moment, but that could rapidly change with time. If the Israeli military refuse to withdraw from southern Lebanon, they will inevitably end up in another war with Hezbollah, it is even possible that Tel Aviv is eyeing an invasion of the Lebanese Beka'a Valley area through Syrian territory.

Annexation of the West Bank is not a matter of if, but when. In order to successfully carry out their long-sought annexation of the occupied West Bank, they will need to deploy massive numbers of troops to the territory, especially if the Palestinian Authority ends up collapsing, thus leaving a power vacuum that will be filled by a myriad of anti-occupation armed groups from across the political spectrum. Netanyahu will likely pledge to complete the annexation in exchange for keeping together his extremist coalition. Where this leads is anyones guess; there could be mass ethnic cleansing committed against the Palestinians of the territory, destabilizing neighboring Jordan. It is also possible that armed factions could end up launching cross border attacks against the Israelis.

Israel's eyes are also clearly set upon the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Trump administration also appears to be on board with its plans to eventually topple the Iranian leadership in Tehran, at the very least through sowing chaos there and hatching a civil-war style plot, again.

Unfortunately, it also goes without saying that there is a very real possibility that Israel will simply abandon the Gaza ceasefire deal (as it has done many times) even if it adheres to it in its initial phase, using it as an opportunity to claim back its remaining live captives, before unleashing another wave of hell against the besieged coastal enclave. Some have speculated that this is certainly Netanyahu's intention, but it is not so simple for his army to again re-occupy the besieged strip of territory after its soldiers have already fought for 15 months and made no significant progress towards fulfilling any of the stated goals of their campaign. This isn't to say that they are incapable of doing so, but such a move would have tremendous ramifications and could again ignite multiple fronts against an already weakened Israeli military and population.

If there was ever a time for a ceasefire to succeed, now is that time. If it does not, then it is likely that this conflict will escalate and morph into something much more bloody. Either way, Israel appears to be on a crash course to its own demise, and with or without fighting in Gaza, it will continue its regional war.